First and foremost, it's important to realize that we're not trying to identify an actual criminal. We're attempting to figure out what's in the minds of the script writers and that of the show's creator. As such, of paramount importance becomes distinguishing the difference between an actual profile and what might be deemed 'best' to capture the attention of a viewing audience. In real life, you go where the evidence leads you while using a profile as a tool along the way. Quite a difference.
Disclaimers aside, I believe the best evidence we're given is the near-constant return of the poem, The Tyger. I can't help but believe that's for a specific reason (well beyond an admiration for Blake's work). Having read the poem in it's entirety, the line that stands out for me is "Did he who made the Lamb make thee?" My guess is that eludes to a long-lost brother of Patrick Jane - one he, at the time, may not have even realized was his brother - back in his carnival days. Perhaps Jane's father kept this from him as a youngster because they were estranged for some reason. This would explain the similarities in personality and habits spoken of, as well as Lorelei's "I'm surprised you two didn't become fast friends when you met"; he and his brother sharing many of the ame family traits. It would also explain why 'Anti-lamb' would keep Patrick alive even though he's had numerous opportunities to kill him. Killing his brother would not rid him of his jealousy or the need to prove himself better/smarter than Patrick. Constantly defeating him and staying one step ahead of him would, and that explains his obsession with Jane. The reason behind the murder of Patrick Jane's family seems obvious as well under this theory. Bad Jane wanted to eliminate what his brother had, but he did not have. It's a classic yin-yang, good vs. evil, Cain v. Abel. If I'm correct, at some point we'll see an increased attention on Jane's carnival days, paving the way for the hint of someone else from his past that he probably remembers, but only in a fleeting way. 'Bad Jane', of course, must have already been introduced to us in order for his identity to have a real impact when the time comes. So Patrick Jane's long-forgotten brother, Bad Jane, and Red John's identity is ... Ellis Mars. Slightly older than Jane, which fits. Same pseudo-psychic background, above-average intelligence, someone that helped Jane on a case, and, cryptically, El es (Ellis) (meaning 'it is' in Spanish, as we saw on the crime seen wall), the red planet, Mars. There you have it!
Now, I also think there's a good chance that Gale Bertram and Grace Van Pelt may very well be 'disciples' of Red John, as Jane often puts it; the former also a Red John possibility, and my 'fall back' pick for Red John's identity, should my main theory prove false. In either case, between Bertram's Blake quote to the media and Van Pelt's verbal defense in a recent episode, it's safe to say at a minimum, they're connected to Visualize. But gun to my head, I'll go with Ellis Mars, he being Jane's evil genius brother. That's my best attempt at infiltrating the mind of Bruno Heller!
