Before I say my theory, I have to say couple of things.

There are many scenes where you can see huge sadness in
Patrick Jane’s eyes when he thinks about his family’s death (example when
Kristina says to him that his daughter didn’t feel pain because she was
asleep). Also, in pilot, when he approaches room in which his wife and daughter
are killed, you can see in his face transformation from his classic smile to
surprise when he sees the note on the door, then to fear when he opens that
door. Why the hell would producers insert those scenes if PJ is the killer of
his own family? Don’t tell me it’s red herring or something it would be just
stupid.

As for ‘He is mar’, it is not written ‘He is Mar’, it is
small m, not capital, so not a name. We definitely know it’s mar not man from
the script. I don’t think Jared Renfrew knew who exactly Red John is. If he
did, why would he bother writing He is.. when he could just write a name. Also,
he didn’t actually said that he knows who he is, he just said ‘I have dynamite
information about Red John’. So, maybe he just knows something that could lead
to him, but not specifically who he is. So, he tried in his dying moments to
write a sentence that could mean something. For example ‘He is married
to...(some person)...’, that person then could lead to RJ. I think he wanted to
write ‘He is marionette’ but i will explain that later.

I think RJ can’t be person that appeared in only one episode
because people who didn’t watch that episode wouldn’t remember him. Producers
are just playing with us with clues like Ardiles==Red sails and Elliston,
Ella’s dinner... just to ask ourselves ‘Is it him? Is it him?’ like Bruno
Heller said. They are also inserting carracters whose names start with Man and
Mar, just to toy with us.

Also, you can forget about CBI Ron and red sweater guy being
RJ because they are not even real actors they are just stunts.

As for Kristina Frye, there is definitely something wrong
with her last appearance. I personally don’t think it is possible to be like a
herb, and in the same time to be a channel to dead souls. So she is probably
faking. Actually my theory is that she is Red John. She is after PJ and Bret
Stiles most powerfull and can have huge influence on people. She likes Patrick,
she is interested in him sexually, like Red John definitely is (sending Lorelei
to examine PJ’s intimate regions). She has a disciple who calles himself Roy
Tagliaferro, and he is the one for whom everybody thinks is RJ, but he is just
marionette (He is mar) of Kristina Frye. He is part of Visualise, and that’s
why Bret Stiles knows about him and has info about missing KF.  

That is my main theory about RJ but I also have little
extension to it. There were many theories that suggested that RJ is someone
from PJ’s past. Remember the little dying girl from flashback scenes with young
PJ. She is called Celia in the script, but I don’t think that matters. I think
that she is Kristina Frye. The girl obviously liked young Patrick and that
likeness (actually ‘form of love’ as Bret Stiles puts it) is only thing
stopping RJ from killing Patrick. Also you have story about that frase ‘Roll
tide’.

As a final thing I have to express my dissapoitment in
quantity of clues producers are giving to us about RJ. I will be happy if the
show is not cancelled before we find out who he is. Also, the facts that
producers put in the show are not perfect. For example, in one episode PJ asks
Rigsby if he put milk in his tea, and in the other PJ says he is lactosse
intollerant. There are others but I think I wrote enough for today :)