I just don't like him

SparkedIntoLife > Actually, that's funny ! I made the whole same investigation as you did there ! I swear !
But there is one thing, and only one, that I found different : Osvaldo Ardiles isn't under 5'5 foot tall. Actually he is ... 5.9 foot tall. Yeah, you're not mistaken, and that fact changes a lot of consequences.

Ardiles has the average build of Red John. He has short, straight hair like Rosalind said.

Here are ALL the criterias shown all along the show (I think I didn't miss anything, and no judgement in those) :

Shown on the screen : Red John drinks tea, and holds his cup of tea with the left hand. He is "sophisticated".

Haley said : Red John is a white guy, had a baseball cap and and an odd voice.

Rosalind Harker : Red John is just under 6 foot tall (fits perfectly Ardiles), average build, short and straight hair, gentle voice. He smelt earth most of the time and liked to listen to her playing piano.

Patrick Jane : Red John considers himself as a showman, an artist. He has a strong sense of theater. He doesn't like losing, nor when someone is mocking him. He is meticulous and don't make mistakes. If you have a clue, it's because he gave it to you intentionally.

Lorelei Martins : Red John is a manipulator and charismatic (which would kind of eliminate Bret Partridge of the suspects for me ... well).

Red John himself : Has a friend in the FBI (didn't say he was himself in the FBI). Hates poor imitations of his work. Isn't religious.

Following those criterias, from the 30 suspects list, 6 only may stay suspects :
Paul Fricke (I didn't see you mention him at all) ; Robert Kirkland ; Dr. Royston Daniel ; Ray Faffner (average height) ; Richard Haibach (same here) ; Osvaldo Ardiles.

Why did I rule out Bret Partridge, even though he fits almost all the criterias ? Because he isn't charismatic at all (unlike the description of Red John by his fidels), doesn't seem to be hard to read for Jane, likes too much his work, is an evident suspect that the producers would like us to believe of, doesn't leave the memory of someone powerful, someone that terrifies us, someone that we would fear till the end.

I don't think it would be a good thing if we remembered of Red John as someone who has already lost to anyone and needed help before in the show. For that reason, I guess we can rule out Paul Fricke (who needs the help and money of women to live) ;
Dr. Royston Daniel (was going to be killed by some average woman, couldn't expect that Jane would come to help and, when it turned out they didn't stand a chance, it was Jane who found how to wake up Rigsby, not Royston Daniel. Would he really accept the fact that he lost pitifully against Jane already in his chosen field ? No.) ;
Ray Haffner (Jane only needed a few hours to ruin his authority in his team and dismantle the team along. Haffner had to concede that Jane is smarter than him, which would never accept Red John. Haffner made a simple mistake when talking about Visualize to Lisbon, Red John wouldn't do it.) ;
Richard Haibach (Red John wouldn't be this aggressive with the cops, wouldn't let Lisbon arrest him like that without a vengeance, and wouldn't let anyone know so easily about his secret activities (photography of people without them knowing it).

(By the way, Glen Snow can't be Red John anyways because Haley, the little girl with the smiley drawn on her hand, said Red John was a white man).

That let us with ... Only 2 suspects ! Robert Kirkland and Osvaldo Ardiles !
But we know Kirkland is an obvious suspect that was introduced to make us be unaware of what happened juste next to him. I think it would be a real disappointment if, after hidding Red John so well during the show, the producers just let him appear at the end of and episode like that. He could be only a Red John complice (wouldn't be very interesting actually, but we don't know yet) OR someone that wants to find Red John ! I hope it's the second option !
Kirkland being ruled out, only one name remains ... Osvaldo Ardiles ! I can't find any proof to tell he isn't Red John actually. He has always been a calm-minded guy, doesn't let Jane overwhelm him, stays safe from all the tricks. We don't know enough of his personal life. I believe it will be really interesting.

What do you think about it guys ?

I've thought that it was Laroche for a while now.
First, his name, Laroche, always makes me think of Le Rouge, "The Red" in french. But the last chapter made it pretty clear to me when he asked Jane whether he thought of him as a friend and he didn't answer.

Well we all know that there will be 7 suspect revealed...and shortly I would like to guess these 7 names:

-Osvaldo Ardilles
-Brett Pattridge
-Gale Bertram
-Robert Kirkland
-Ellis Mars
-Ray Haffner
-Walter Mashburn

Ardilless:
he is not really so much interesting, he is just a lawyer. But there are two reasons why I choose him: Cut Iron->In Court and a very special hint from the writers, that we should look for the anagrams, and Red sails in the sunset is an anagram for Hunt Ardilles,its seen.

Brett Pattridge:
He fits all the descriptions and is very known for investigating Red John cases. He appeared in the Pilot and in the finale of season 2. I wouldn't bet for him being RJ, but it's possible, since he and Jane hate each other and for the mirror scene in Red Sky in The Morning.

Gale Bertram:
We all know who he is but I believe most of you don't believe he is RJ because of Poker. I agree. but the most important thing, which I believe shouldn't be forgotten is:-He cares a lot about media(LIKE RED JOHN?) and the most interesting scene in the series : season 3 finale. when Jane meets him at the Mall, Jane, Gale, Rigsby and Cho are the only ones that know they will meet there. so how would RJ know that? Gale is RJ... Red John had to guide Jane to solve the puzzle, so he said at the end of the rope...interesting? yeah

Ellis Mars:
My personal guess because of the psychic thingy. The show writer said that the season 5 finale will turn the hunt for Red John in a new way and since it's at a carnival it's completely logical, since Mars is a psychic. Weird scene was, when he knew about Jane's tragedy and Tiger burning bright "card". it's either he is red john or he is accually a psychic, which is less possible.

Bob Kirkland:
Many people ruled him out since the hunt scene, where its shown that he has a same board as Jane, but bigger. There are 2 options:Either he is hunting Red John, either he is Red John and has a such desk for Jane. I would believe he was RJ if writers wouldn't make it so obvious.

Ray Haffner:
Interesting since Red Barn, but i would like to mention the fact, that he admited that Jane is smarter than him...RJ wouldn't.

Walter Mashburn:
He is "friends" with Jane and a former lover with Lisbon. it would be interesting seeing him being RJ and telling that him and Lisbon had sex, but he doesn't really fit the smart guy appearance. he is just rich.

My guess:
Ellis Mars:35%
Gale Bertram:30%
Kirkland:20%
Pattridge:10%
Haffner:2%
Mashburn:2%
Ardilless:1%


Important clues that everyone has to think about:
-Bret knowing about Rosalind.
-Gale/Jane scene at the mall
-RJ is a showman,puppet,mentalist,...
-Lorelei storyline
-Friend in the FBI
-Relationship with Jane
-Carnival thingy(Lorelei,season 5 finale), Hates pyschics
-Tyger, Tyger song

everytime a knew RJ fact comes out i get more confused ;/

I believe this week's season finale will be a major game changer. We have all loved speculating on RJ's identity throughout the years and names such as Mashburn, Minelli, Bertram, LaRoche etc. have circulated constantly.

The finale will whittle the suspect list down to 7 and I believe a lot of popular names will be ruled out. 

Drama and intrigue would probably dictate that RJ has to be someone who has been in the show since early on and has appeared multiple times. I don't believe that to be the case necessarily. Bruno Heller plans at least one more season and I believe this will be used to investigate fresh leads and explore more characters. 

Let's look at the evidence over dramatic convenience. There are 4 major clues. 

[1] The priest in Red Barn implies he saw a kid drawing the RJ symbol on the barn back in 1988. A kid seems to indicate anything from 5 to 25 so RJ would seem to be between 30 and 50.

Rosalind Harker describes him as [2] just under 6 foot (therefore probably between 5'9 and 6), [3] average build and [4] has short, straight hair.

_____________

Now let's go through the suspect list posted on the CBS website to start us off and see if they disqualify on the aforementioned criteria.

[1] BETWEEN 30 AND 50 -

This rules out the following for being too old - Bret Styles (actor is 69), Asher Maclean (actor is 55), Judge Manchester (actor is 65), Sheriff McAllister (actor is 57), Jason Cooper (actor is 59), Dr. Linus Wagner (actor is 55), Virgil Minelli (actor is 65), Max Winter (actor is 55) and Vint Molinari (actor is 62).

The actors that play Donny Culpepper, Ellis Mars and JJ LaRoche are all 52 so I've kept them in consideration as they aren't far off the maximum age.

[2] JUST UNDER 6 FOOT TALL (BETWEEN 5'9 AND 6'0) -

This rules out the following for being too tall - Gale Bertram (actor is 6'3), Doc Dugan (actor is 6'3), Gabe Mancini (actor is 6'2), Walter Mashburn (actor is 6'3), Reede Smith (actor is 6'3).

This rules out the following for being too short - Markham Shankar (unsure of actor height but appeared much shorter than Patrick Jane who is 5'10), Tolman Bunting (actor is 5'7) and Osvaldo Ardilles (unsure on height but looks no more than 5'5 compared to other characters).

I wasn't sure on the height of the actor that plays Glen/Glennda Snow. 

The actors that play Ray Haffner and Richard Haibach are 6'1. The actor playing Don Henderson is 5'8. As they are only an inch above or below my minimum and maximum heights, I'm keeping these 3 as suspects.

[3] AVERAGE BUILD -

This rules out JJ LaRoche and Don Henderson for being overweight or overly stocky. I'm also ruling out Paul Fricke for being too slight. Glen/Glennda Snow appears way too muscular.

[4] SHORT, STRAIGHT HAIR -

This is quite inconclusive. Roy Tagliaferro (Red John) could have shaved, lost or grown his hair since he and Rosalind Harker were lovers.

However, I'm allowing this to rule out Dean Harker and Tommy Volker as their hair is much too naturally wavy.

I'm going to rule out Donny Culpepper due to the fact he is only a petty thief and, as stated above, is a little too old.

_____________

So... who do we have left?

Those who perfectly match the criteria are -

Robert Kirkland
Brett Partridge
Dr. Royston Daniel

Through minor exceptions in criteria, I am still allowing the following onto my suspect list -

Ray Haffner
Ellis Mars
Richard Haibach

I believe also that the CBS website may have omitted a suspect or two in order to preserve dramatic tension. Coupled with the recent spoiler that Lisbon will be shocked when she hears the first of the suspect names, I believe Patrick Jane's other suspect will be her brother Tommy. 

_____________


My final 7 suspects (that I believe will be revealed in the finale) are Robert Kirkland, Brett Partridge, Dr. Royston Daniel, Ray Haffner, Ellis Mars, Richard Haibach and Tommy Lisbon.

_____________

Partridge is scheduled to appear in the finale. I can see him being eliminated from suspicion dramatically at the end of the episode; bringing the suspect list down to 6 in time for season 6.

Kirkland will likely be revealed as either an RJ accomplice or, more intriguingly, someone like Patrick who is trying to get vengeance on the infamous serial killer. He's clearly a red herring (pun intended).

Haffner's Visualise connection will likely be further explored in season 6 and this will be another opportunity to bring back Bret Styles. However, I believe his plot arc will be used to finally bring down Visualise rather than reveal RJ.

Ellis Mars will probably reappear in season 6 but I can actually see him being a victim this time.

Haibach's been left a little open ended. It was clear he was up to no good as he was caught taking photographs of young women. I think he will be brought to justice for stalking in a future episode but won't be Red John. Maybe an accomplice though.

Tommy Lisbon's inclusion on the suspect list will be used to highlight a little more conflict between Patrick Jane and Teresa Lisbon. I can imagine Red John's Rules will have a video recording of Lorelai being forced to communicate RJ's new rules. This will involve threatening Lisbon's life if Jane doesn't do something that RJ wants. I can see this leading to Tommy trying to save his sister and getting killed by Red John in the process.

That leaves us with Dr. Royston Daniel. The perfect suspect. He's appeared early on in the show. He's charismatic, handsome, powerful and a master of hypnosis and NLP. An ideal adversary for Patrick Jane. They seem also to be the exact same height and somewhat similar looking (though Daniel has dark hair and Jane has light hair - nice symbolism). I can see this creating a powerful visual for their final confrontation.