Top Suspect: Agent Ray Haffner

Obviously after the most recent episode, Red Barn, Haffner has to be among the leading suspects.  The writers weren't especially subtle about it, considering the tension between Haffner and Lisbon when Lisbon found out Haffner was a Visualize member.  

Then again, the guilty person is rarely who the writers want you to suspect.  

I discuss my reasons for believing Haffner has to be taken very seriously as a top Red John suspect - or if not, someone very close to him - according to criteria I have for Red John. But first are my criteria (in addition to the obvious criteria established in this website's "clues"):

1) Age (45-55) - Red John Must be someone close in age to Patrick Jane, or perhaps slightly older.  He cannot be too much older (ruling out Bret Stiles), because he would not be able bodied enough to fit the character we saw at the end of "Red Sky in the Morning (2-23)," or the relatively youthful hand of "Roy Tagliaferro" we saw at the end of "Red is the New Black (4-13)." Moreover an old fart wouldn't be a suitable nemesis for Jane anyway. Neither would someone younger. We know RJ has to be at least around 45 anyway to fit the timeline established in "Red Barn (5-13)."  

Ray Haffner is the appropriate age.  

2) Charisma/Virtù - The most difficult thing for The Mentalist writers to explain will be why a serial killer has an entire network of fervently loyal, capable, and powerful disciples?  Serial killers simply do not have organizations, especially not vast, well oiled intelligence/influence operations that infiltrate numerous govt. agencies. Historically they have occasionally operated in pairs, but that's about it. A serial killer his own intelligence agency is a major stretch that must be explained.  

So what is it about Red John that enables him to operate as he does and command such cult like loyalty? 

Money? Red John must have at least a modestly significant independent source (serial killing doesn't pay, unless he's a hit-man for hire, but that doesn't fit), but no amount of money can command this kind of cult-like devotion.  

Know what might help Red John inspire cult-like devotion? A cult. Which is why it surely surprises no one that closer and closer ties between Red John and visualize are continually revealed.  

But in addition to drawing from Visualize to inspire his following, Red John must also have a sort of "virtù," as Machiavelli would call it (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virt%C3%B9).  A weaselly man such as Timothy Carter could never inspire the devotion of a confident, high achieving guy like Craig O'laughlin as well as other FBI and LE agents.  Nor could he be William Blake's predatory "Tyger." 

Red John inspires such followers with strength, wisdom and intellectual charisma as well as a level of personal charisma.  The wisdom (or perceived wisdom) requirement reinforces that his age is likely in the 45-55 range.  

Ray Haffner is the appropriate age, yet still very able bodied.  He is also relatively handsome and capable of considerable charisma.  He is accomplished, as was established in "Little Red Book (4-02)," having started his career with the FBI Organized Crime Division using "creative surveillance techniques."  

3) Law Enforcement - I am convinced Red John must almost certainly be in law enforcement.  How else could he have so many loyalists in the FBI, CBI, etc.?  The FBI is a very insular organization, and they don't look up to outsiders the way these guys look up to Red John. 

Haffner is former FBI and with his record of success at the FBI, 

4) Other Criteria:

Ray Haffner shakes hands with Patrick Jane the first time they meet in "Little Red Book (4-02)."  He also then puts his hand on Jane's shoulder, a universal sign of condescension.  Haffner has moved in as Jane's boss, and perhaps he has engineered this situation in hopes of recruiting & mentoring Jane much earlier than we realized (in the final episode of Season 5).  There is no question Haffner wants to be Jane's friend. This not only establishes Haffner as someone who shook Jane's hand, but someone who sought to make friends (perhaps "lifelong friends") with Jane as soon as they shook hands.  Haffner also fits because he is someone Jane clearly did NOT make friends with.  

We know that Red John wants to see himself as a mentor figure to Jane. He would view it as perhaps his greatest achievement/victory to bring golden boy Jane into is following and convert him to his own perspectives as he has so lesser challenges in law enforcement.  Haffner's efforts to do the same in "Little Red Book" make Haffner a perfect fit for Red John.  

Haffner is also about the appropriate height - Roy Tagliaferro was around 5'11. Reed Diamond, the actor playing Haffner, is slightly over 6'0. And he has short hair, like Roy, as described by Rosalind Harker.  

As a bonus, perhaps "Roy" is a natural alias for someone actually named "Ray."  For what it's worth "Haffner" means "potter," which doesn't appear to have anything to do with "Tagliaferro" or "Cut Iron."  But perhaps we will see Jane test Haffner at some point by calling him "Roy" instead of "Ray."

Also, consider the actor himself.  Whoever ends up being Red John, the actor playing him surely must be capable of giving us all a satisfactory villain, the way Bradley Whitford did as Timothy Carter. Reed Diamond (Haffner) has shown he can play the straight arrow cop, as he has done in The Mentalist as well as his other work.  But he would also be fully capable of playing one fantastic villain.  Just look at the man's eyes.  

Ray Haffner as Red John just makes too much sense.  Can anyone give good reasons why it isn't Haffner?  I don't think anyone else would fit the bill nearly as well.  

Simon

The Mentalist” in a nutshell: it’s all been done before.Patrick Jane hits the rocks in Sin City and ostensibly doubts the moral difference between right and wrong (white hat v. black hat), attracting heartless siren Lorelei MAR-tinS, the bird in the scarlet red dress and black winglets, who spreads her wings and tempts him to the dark side of RED JOHN in the “Crimson Hat.“Crimson Hat” is old-hat: The series’ cliffhanger involves yet another mole in the FBI, another CBI “number 1″ gets the boot, and RJ using the old cell phone gag gets away Scott-free. It’s the “Usual Suspects,” and RED JOHN like Keyser Söze vanishes like Jane’s hidden coin trick, “First he’s there, and like that he’s gone.”Et two, Bruno?Either Bruno Heller thinks the viewers have the memory span of a fruit fly or he’s trying to make a point: since the Pilot (through the Looking Glass with the Lyin’ fish – “one man’s fishbowl is another man’s snow globe”) Jane has a split personality like Verbal Kint aka Keyser Söze, and, like Verbal Kint , Jane has been making this story up as he goes. In the end of “Usual Suspects” Detective Kujan realizes with a shock that details and names from Verbal’s story are culled from various objects around the room – including Rabin’s crowded bulletin board and the “Kobayashi Porcelain Company” logo on the bottom of his coffee cup. (Well, call me Cho-bayashi.) Kujan realizes that most of Verbal’s story was improvised for his benefit. (Lisbon likes BOSCO.)Jane: “old cell phone gag”? I invented that right there and then… rather brilliantly, I thought.
Lisbon : Oh, please. I’ve seen that done a dozen times.
Jane : What do you mean? Where?
Lisbon : On TV.
Jane : Well, anything can happen on TV. The question is, where have you seen that done in real life?
Patrick Jane: Life is a million to one. The universe is one big coincidence.Anybody think it coincidental that Citroen, the car Jane drives, just happens to be the name of the gang member (Citron) suspected in the death of the nameless and faceless shotgun victim, which conveniently provided Jane the Rigsby body double? (Talk about a Crimson Hat.)Anybody troubled by Jane telling Lisbon to pinky-swear not to tell ANYONE about his fake breakdown and then the CBI scoobs are suddenly in on the great deception?Lorelei, on Keston, almost performs a “Verbal Kint” makeover on Jane’s left hand and gets caught on Debonair. Loved the final scene of Lorelei facing her opposite, Teresa Lisbon.Jane (to Lorelei): I know it’s hard to believe now, but you’re gonna talk to us. You’re gonna break down, and you’re gonna tell us everything you know about Red John. You’re gonna sing like a bird. A Scarlet Tanager(NB “Tanager” was the name of the ship in the “Usual Suspects.”)The clever long con of “Usual Suspects” was Keyser Söze’s identity. (Fast Fact: Kevin Spacey revealed that Bryan Singer managed to convince every one of the major actors that they were Keyser Söze. When first screened for the company of actors, Gabriel Byrne (Keaton) was so stunned when he found that he wasn’t Keyser Söze that he stormed off into the parking lot and argued with Bryan for a half hour.)The clever long con of “The Mentalist” was Red John’s identity. As in the “Usual Suspects,” Bruno has dropped more red herrings that cast false suspicion on every character in the show. As in the “Usual Suspects,” the answer was right in front of us the whole time: Jane was Red John, his imaginary nemesis. (Fast Fact #2: The CBI Headquarters is actually the rear entrance of the Pico House, a former luxury hotel and a National Historic Landmark located in Downtown Los Angeles, designed by architect Ezra Kysor.) (FF # 3 Patrick Jane loves Pekoe tea.)Burning clues: Jane appears to be a Sherlock Homes super-sleuth character but in reality is a mental patient who suffers from paranoid delusions due to feelings of extreme guilt in the deaths of his wife and child who were burned as he was (CBI = intensive burn care?) in a horrific car accident involving a driver named Tanner when he failed to stop at a BLINKING RED LIGHT – hence the RJ symbol – while he was driving intoxicated and spends his days watching TV shows, which generate his ideas for the delusional episodes. “The Mentalist” is obsessed with fire, as in half the episodes it plays a significant plot point. “Tiger, Tiger burning bright, they were “Au-burned.” In the “Red Mile” episode Jane arrives at a crime scene outside Auburn, California. Shouts from Alabama football fans of “Roll Tide” first appeared during the Alabama-Auburn Tiger game in 1907. Curiously, a corpse was found in a burned car in “Ruby Slippers,” in which Jane discovers the identity of Fifi Nix, like Jane’s Phoenix, has risen from the ashes of his past life. The fake Jane character in “Red Moon,” where another corpse was found in a burned car, was named Ellis Mars.The Mentalist – Tommy Westphall – Mars and Tin Man ConnectionGreen Tea for Two: Red John is Patrick (green) Jane’s imaginary evil twin, his “perfect symmetry” alter-ego (Jane/John), Professor Moriarty character in a “Tommy Westphall” imaginary world like “St. Elsewhere’s” snow globe and “Life on Mars” that is the dream state of Jane. Roy Tagliaferro (read: “cut iron”) anagram is “court irony.” Ironic that failure to obey a Red (don’t cross) and Green (cross) light will get you a “Crimson Ticket.”Who’s a Lyin’? Jane or Mar-tinsSJane: Perhaps we can see each other again.
Lorelei: That’s not up to me.
Jane: Oh, you have no say in it?
Lorelei: None at all. It’s very “Westphall.”
Jane: I don’t follow you.
Lorelei: I do what Red John tells me to do.The characters of Rigsby, Cho, Van Pelt and Lisbon are also Jane’s creations ala the “Wizard of Oz;” the Tin Man, Scarecrow, Cowardly Lion, and Dorothy – in reality are the assistants and doctors at the mental hospital and the RJ minions are Jane’s fellow mental patients. In the final scene Jane confronts “Red John” and in an homage to “OZ” awakens from his dream state to realize the true identities of Lisbon et al.

First and foremost, it's important to realize that we're not trying to identify an actual criminal. We're attempting to figure out what's in the minds of the script writers and that of the show's creator. As such, of paramount importance becomes distinguishing the difference between an actual profile and what might be deemed 'best' to capture the attention of a viewing audience. In real life, you go where the evidence leads you while using a profile as a tool along the way. Quite a difference.

Disclaimers aside, I believe the best evidence we're given is the near-constant return of the poem, The Tyger. I can't help but believe that's for a specific reason (well beyond an admiration for Blake's work). Having read the poem in it's entirety, the line that stands out for me is "Did he who made the Lamb make thee?" My guess is that eludes to a long-lost brother of Patrick Jane - one he, at the time, may not have even realized was his brother - back in his carnival days. Perhaps Jane's father kept this from him as a youngster because they were estranged for some reason. This would explain the similarities in personality and habits spoken of, as well as Lorelei's "I'm surprised you two didn't become fast friends when you met"; he and his brother sharing many of the ame family traits. It would also explain why 'Anti-lamb' would keep Patrick alive even though he's had numerous opportunities to kill him. Killing his brother would not rid him of his jealousy or the need to prove himself better/smarter than Patrick. Constantly defeating him and staying one step ahead of him would, and that explains his obsession with Jane. The reason behind the murder of Patrick Jane's family seems obvious as well under this theory. Bad Jane wanted to eliminate what his brother had, but he did not have. It's a classic yin-yang, good vs. evil, Cain v. Abel. If I'm correct, at some point we'll see an increased attention on Jane's carnival days, paving the way for the hint of someone else from his past that he probably remembers, but only in a fleeting way. 'Bad Jane', of course, must have already been introduced to us in order for his identity to have a real impact when the time comes. So Patrick Jane's long-forgotten brother, Bad Jane, and Red John's identity is ... Ellis Mars. Slightly older than Jane, which fits. Same pseudo-psychic background, above-average intelligence, someone that helped Jane on a case, and, cryptically, El es (Ellis) (meaning 'it is' in Spanish, as we saw on the crime seen wall), the red planet, Mars. There you have it!

Now, I also think there's a good chance that Gale Bertram and Grace Van Pelt may very well be 'disciples' of Red John, as Jane often puts it; the former also a Red John possibility, and my 'fall back' pick for Red John's identity, should my main theory prove false. In either case, between Bertram's Blake quote to the media and Van Pelt's verbal defense in a recent episode, it's safe to say at a minimum, they're connected to Visualize. But gun to my head, I'll go with Ellis Mars, he being Jane's evil genius brother. That's my best attempt at infiltrating the mind of Bruno Heller!

There is this episode named "his thoughts were red thoughts" in season 4. In this episode, I catched the moment where Bret Stiles' new lawyer came into the interrogation room. Lawyer was kind of patronizing to Bret Stiles. Bret Stiles says "we should tell them everything".

I say that "red john" isnt just one person, they are a group of murders that have evolved overtime, thats why when jane found the face on the barn the timeling didnt add up.

I know this theory would be unpleasent for the general persepctive but still I think it should be taken in consideration.

What if... Red John is not a person! but a group of persons, most likely former or current members of Visualize. A group of persons with a particular leader or such. So whenever an activity linked in anyway to 'Red John' occurs, this group plans it ahead and makes it happen. Maybe that's why 'Red John' has so many 'accomplices'. So this 'Roy Tagliaferro' might be the leader of this group, and who else is represented as leader to a group better than Bret Stiles. Although it's not likely for a young woman like Rosalind Harker to fall in love with an old man like Bret Stiles, but still he could be the master of this group and call the shots. As far as we know Lorelei Martins, Craig O'Laughlin, Timothy Carter, Todd Johnson, Rebecca, Ron Deutsch, Orville Tanner and Sherrif Hardy we're all accomplices and so, most likely, members of this group.

So here it is! let me know what you think. :D

I think it is Patrick Jane's father, upset that Jane ran away from the carnival thus leaving him without an act.  Jane WAS the act.  Without Jane, his father had nothing.

Jane always refers to Red John as a performer and someone who is equal to his talents.  Who better than the man who trained him, his father?

This would also explain the reflection in the computer screen when Jane is talking to Red John.  Many people say the reflection looked like Jane.  Well, that would make sense if Red John is Jane and they cast an actor who looked like he could be Simon Baker's father.
Also, the way Red John wants to be close to Jane and even have Jane follow him is almost fatherly, in a weird, psychotic kind of way.