This is a re-post of my old theory, hoping to reformat the post and correct grammar. If the reformatting fails, then I give up on this site.


The identity of Red John. This will be written as a persuasive argument rather than purely evidential analysis


First, Bruno Heller has been quoted as saying the astute observer will figure out Red John's Identity (no citation).Although I don't have a link for where I heard that, we should take it as an invitation to apply our minds to discover Red John's identity. 


I will walk you through several things and I'll start with Red John's personality. This will be referenced as part A.A)



1 - He has the capacity to be "the greatest man I've ever met." (Quote from several of his disciples, one being Rebecca, the woman who killed Bosco's team.)



2 - He is skilled in espionage, a conclusion that can be derived from all his moles scattered about the CBI and FBI.



3 - Red John believes in transformation. This is evidenced in the way he turns his disciples. Lorelei tells us that she cannot be hurt because she's already faced her greatest fear, losing her sister (unbeknownst to her, at the hands of Red John). It's as though he recognizes that deep personal trauma is what is required to change someone's personality.



4 - Red John takes extreme vengeance for personal attacks. This can be observed by the punishment he brought down upon Patrick. He elects the deepest kind of suffering for his victims.



5 - Red John believes that he is part of something greater, some kind of righteous idea. There are several references to this, one from Red John himself when he offers partnership to Jane in the season 4 finale, "it's a higher path Patrick, a nobler existence." Rebecca also explains that Red John is on a higher mission. He Also hates "cheap imitations," of his work.



6 - Red John is truly attracted to Rosalind Harker in a special way. One thing that can be noted regarding Harker is that Red John never actually uses her to achieve an end, like he did with Rebecca and Lorelei. In fact, Red John (to our knowledge) hasn't even told Harker that he is Red John. In addition, Red John lets her live in harmony. All of this on top of the fact that they were lovers.



7 - His original trademark killings were highly intimate. He would kill his victims by slicing their throat (in his early days he used a stun gun as well). Also, he specifically targeted women. This indicates that he has some hatred towards women.



8 - Red John loves to play games. When he kills the man who threatened to reveal his identity in Mexico (the infamous "he is mar" incident), he calls Jane and laughs. That's it, he just laughs, a true show of immaturity in his victory. His mind games are also readily apparent in his dealings with Jane. Just look to the poem "Tyger Tyger," to see this.



9 - Red John is rich. While not really a personality trait, it is still relevant. This is a conclusion that can be arrived at by several facts: he can give people new lives and has power in high up places. You don't get that power without money OR you don't have that power and not use it to get money.
After analyzing Red John's personality, finding him in the cast will be much easier to do. However, first I would like to analyze his transformation. This will be referenced as part B.B)



1 - Red John has himself experienced trauma. (Evidenced by A3) 



2 - That trauma was at the hands of a woman. (Evidenced by A7) 



3 - That trauma also changed him into what he is now, a serial killer. (Evidenced by A3)



4 - The trauma also produced a coping mechanism, a belief that the trauma changed him for the better. In psychology, this is called reappraisal. In order to deal with terrible hardship, we have to believe that the events worked in our favor. In Red John's case, the trauma put him on a "higher path." (Evidenced by 5)
This is how our serial killer was produced. This knowledge will also make it easier to identify him in the cast.



Let's analyze a particular character in the cast and match him up against Red John. The character I will be analyzing is Walter Mashburn.



1 - Mashburn is rich, matching up with A9.



2 - Mashburn was left by his fiancee that he was deeply in love with and it changed him, revealed in season 3, episode Red Hot. This matches up with B1 B2 and A3.



3 - Mashburn took revenge upon the man who stole his fiancee, Yuri Bajoran (Red Hot), in the way that gave Yuri the deepest suffering. Mashburn forced Yuri to sell him his "baby," so that Yuri would wake up every morning knowing that Mashburn had beat him. This parallels with the punishment Red John put down on Jane, and also matches up with A4.



4 - Mashburn's fiancee looks like Rosalind Harker, particularly their hair. A very interesting observation is that the actress for Mrs. Bajoran looks extremely different than Mrs. Bajoran. They changed her hair length and color, even her eyebrow color. In fact, they changed it to the point where it looked similar to the actress who plays Ms. Harker. Why would the creators go out of their way to change the actress' appearance so much for such a minor role that got maybe five minutes of screen time? Unless the purpose was to allow the viewer to draw the similarity in appearance. Here are two links that show you the two women: Harker: http://www.tvfanatic.com/2009/03/alicia-witt-to-guest-star-on-the-mentalist/Bajoran: http://www.free-tv-video-online.me/player/veevr.php?id=SWJLvhSyf (this is the red hot episode)This demonstrates that Mashburn has the same taste in women as Red John and matches A6.



5 - Masburn is extremely charming. This is evidenced by Lisbon's attraction to him (super tension) and his wife's description of him. This matches up with A1.



6 - Mashburn has an immaturity about him, a type of childish boredom. He also continously expresses the desire to be the killer in particular cases and tells Jane all he has to do is catch him. This matches A8.



7 - Mashburn excels and is experienced in corporate espionage. During his takeover of Yuri's business, he demonstrates his ability to turn people against Yuri and use them to spy on him. This ability to manipulate matches up with A2.



So far, we see that Mashburn has the catalysts needed to turn into a serial killer, the same catalysts that can be deduced from Red John's personality and behavior. 


Replies to anticipated objections.


1 - How come Jane didn't figure this out already? Red John is highly intelligent. Furthermore, we know that Jane has met Red John and not figured it out, so someone has slipped past Jane's analysis. Also, Red John would have to hide behind a persona so that Jane's analysis would pick up the persona rather than the Red John hidden inside. The persona Mashburn uses is "bored billionaire," although he assures Jane that he is "ruthless."



2 - What about the infamous "he is mar?" The dead man did not have blood on his hands and he is not facing the writing. The writing was not finished, so the conclusion is that he did not write it. The girl, however, her hand rests underneath the blood trail coming down from the R. In addition, she is facing the writing on the wall. This means that, "he is mar," has to be describing Red John in such a way that someone who did not know him would describe him from seeing him. This narrows down the possibilities dramatically from what the dead man could have written. He is married is the most likely possibility and the only way she could have known that he was married is by seeing a wedding ring! Mashburn wears a wedding ring despite not being married. Maybe from his emotional commitment to Mrs. Bajoran. Jane also wears his ring from the marriage with his dead wife (just another parallel between Jane and RJ).



3 - Mashburn isn't in enough episodes! He only appears in season 2 and 3.This link: http://reviewbrain.wordpress.com/2012/04/18/currie-graham-interview/ Reveals that Carrie Graham (actor for Mashburn) is in contact with a writer for the mentalist and may be seen again in season 5. Also, "We love Currie Graham aka Mashburn and we hope to have him back." - from a 2011 post. https://twitter.com/mentalistwriter/statuses/114530049964781568



One random note on Mashburn's behavior. In redline (season 2), Mashburn asks Jane in the end, "Did Lisbon really think I was the killer?" (Earlier he expressed sadness when Lisbon said she thought he might be the killer, as if it really hurt him to have her think he was capable of such a thing). When Jane replies, "Yes, but don't think much of it," Mashburn shuts the door, turns around and smiles. One might ask, why in the world would Mashburn smile at something that previously made him sad? The answer, I believe, is that he was really asking, "Did YOU think I could have been the killer." I think he was asking to see if Jane expressed belief in him being a killer, and of course Jane made it obvious that he never suspected Mashburn. The fact that Jane didn't suspect Mashburn for a second brought him joy, to be so close to Jane and totally avoid his suspicion, what an accomplishment for Red John. This is the only explanation I can think of to account for Mashburn's smile.



A few observations1 - Mashburn has played dumb for Jane before. In redline he says to lisbon, "you have a damaged intensity that is very attractive." He knew that Cho liked motorcycles with seemingly no data. He knew that Lisbon had trust issues. Also, Mashburn analyzed himself from Jane's perspective, meaning he was well aware of what personality he presented to Jane. In red hot, Mashburn says, "it's amazing how this man reads people, I wish I had the skill," (he says this in a confident self-assured tone).



2 - Mashburn has said you can get away with anything if you plan it right to Jane's face. In addition, he told Jane it would be cool if next time they met, Mashburn was the killer.



3 - Mashburn said he had friends in power, the sheriff's department... the mayor. What's interesting is that in the episode entitled "Red John's Friends," we discover that Red John is friends with a sheriff. Different sheriffs albeit, but still a parallel.



Trivia1 - If Mashburn is Red John, then he murdered Jane's wife and slept with Lisbon, Jane's two loves. (Jane has said that he loves Lisbon in the season 4 finale.)



2 - Red John has his own particular "sound," that is exclusive to him. One example of the sound is in this link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fgvXfZK9dnw The sound occurs at 1:59. Here is a better example: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pDqVYNtTso4 and the sound occurs at 3:05. It sounds like "dun dun dun dun." To me it sounds like four strikes of a low note on the piano (I have no skill in music whatsoever and have almost no ability to identify instruments from their sounds). In fact, if you can identify the instrument or synthesizer or whatever it is making the sound, I would be grateful. This sound that is only played for Red John and can be heard in the background of red hot. Here's the link: http://www.free-tv-video-online.me/player/veevr.php?id=SWJLvhSyfThe sounds occur at 30:56 in a slightly different tone and in super low volume (obviously to somewhat mask the parallel). The people I've shown this to (people with greater musical inclinations than I) agree that it has the same rhythm, etc. Red John's sound is played during Mrs. Bajoran's explanation of how Walter changed when she broke his heart (the story of the creation of Red John). These sounds are what first made me think of Walter.



3 - Walter gives to charity. Higher purpose?



I hope my argument has persuaded you. I welcome debate. 


I will post my observations for subsequent episodes inside the Walter Mashburn theory list. 


Here's the first set of new observations: 


So, it seems that everyone on that Visualize farm had some kind of delinquency issue. The preacher said he was, "on the wrong path." Lester had, "trouble with the law." Visualize gathers people who are broken, seeking hope, or any other weakness they can prey on. It's likely that RJ was a delinquent (as he was young) and had entered into Visualize (many people have pointed out this possibility). 
As for our list of RJ suspects, might I point out that Walter Mashburn was a delinquent. He was in reform school and his teachers thought he was, "incorrigible." He also had issues with his mother, probably disciplinary issues given that he referred to his mom as, "Mr. Mashburn." 


Based upon the actor's age, Mashburn would have been ~20 in 1988 which makes it quite likely that he would be referred to as "some kid." Also, it seems that particular description of RJ in 1988 indicates that he was young, Jane says under 30. The actor for Minelli would have been ~39 and the actor for Bret Stiles would have been ~44, not likely to be called some kid. I'm pretty sure that's crushing evidence against the Minelli theory and the Stiles theory.


It might also be important to note that RJ's next known killings are in 1998, ten years after his 1988 killings. My opinion regarding this gap is as follows: RJ was on the wrong path as a delinquent, probably psychopathic or nearing it at this young age. He may have even engaged in animal torture while on the farm (one of the McDonald Triad of common traits in serial killers, along with bed wetting and fire starting). Somewhere along the line, he decided to kill those two men. Given that they were tied up and not just killed, I think they were at his mercy, probably because the killing was personal and planned, not just spur of the moment. Maybe revenge for them wronging him for some reason as they were delinquents on speed. Anyway, then it seems to me that RJ went on the right path somewhere thereafter in such a way that removed his need/desire/journey to kill again. (Like going to college and starting a company called Mashburn Avionics. I can't help but relate back to my theory, but there are probably other explanations relating to other characters that I haven't explored yet.) Then something happened that sparked the killer inside of him 10 years later and begin to target women (notice the two victims in the barn were not women, the pattern of killing women occurred later), which I believe was Mashburn's fiancee leaving him (unfortunately they haven't given us that timeline to check it for certainty). I believe the killer was birthed in that barn and held at bay until another catalyst awoke it anew. 


As for Ray Haffner, you guys all think it's extremely obvious he's under RJ's command right? Or at least under someone's command to help cover for RJ.


What do ya'll think?