I chose Minelli because I believe it was supposed to be him in the first season ("HE IS MAN..." scrawled in blood by the victim of Red John on the bathroom wall).  However, the show became very popular, and people began guessing Red John was Minelli, so they had to change it.  They got rid of Minelli and began airing more episodes.  Fans were happy and the network was happy.  Then, in the final episode of season three, Patrick finally confronts Red John in the mall and kills him.  The voice matched, the mannerisms matched--it was Red John.  Fans were thrilled, but the show had to go on.  In order to have more successful seasons, Red John had to "survive," hence the "mistaken identity" in the mall of season three.  Bottom line is that Red John is whoever the network needs him to be in order to keep viewers watching.