not a theory, just some thoughts. i really don't have a theory at this point. seems like each suspect has a compelling 'for' and 'against' argument. 

i re-watched the 3rd episode tonight, and something about the rigsby/gvp wedding struck a nerve. i feel like i remember reading somewhere that red john referred to his female victims as his 'brides.' (can anyone back me up on that?)

what if the smiley face isn't a smiley face, but a wedding ring symbol. 

if we read it in that fashion, then the 'random' female victims become brides, so 'relatives,' and a lot of the other crimes involve 'family:' the sisters kidnapped at the end of the first season (one bride for red john who is killed, one for dumar to be caged), timothy carter and his wife (making it a 'family' affair. and the girl they had kidnapped was in a room like their 'kept daughter.') the baby stolen for laura san giacomo's character, and lorelei and her sister. 

i'm reading red john as a twisted 'father figure,' building his 'family' through subtraction. maybe it wasn't that patrick insulted red john with 'sick little man' comments. maybe it was the fact patrick specifically indicated he was helping the police find the killer, and red john saw his 'family' threatened. he responds by killing patrick's family, as a message: 'this is what it felt like you were doing to me.' the other killings done to prevent discovery or hide evidence become red john 'protecting his family.'